2023 is poised to become the hottest in Earth’s recent history, surpassing a record set over 125,000 years ago, according to European Union scientists.
This prediction comes on the heels of October’s record-shattering temperatures, which the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said surpassed the previous high set in 2019 by a “huge margin”.
“The record was broken by 0.4 °C,” remarked Burgess, describing the October temperature anomaly as “very extreme.”
According to the C3S, the relentless heatwave is attributed to the combined effects of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and the emergence of the El Niño weather pattern this year. This phenomenon, characterised by the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean, further exacerbates global temperatures.
Globally, October’s average surface air temperature soared an alarming 1.7 °C above the same month in 1850-1900, which is generally considered the ‘pre-industrial period’. This record-breaking October essentially guarantees that 2023 will surpass 2016, the previous record-holder, as the warmest year on record.
The C3S is a service of the EU’s Copernicus Programme. It provides information about the past, present, and future climate in Europe and worldwide, including satellite data, in-situ observations, and climate models.
Copernicus’ dataset spans back to 1940, but when combined with data from the UN climate science panel, IPCC, which includes readings from ice cores, tree rings, and coral deposits, the evidence points to an even more alarming trend. According to Burgess, “When we combine our data with the IPCC, then we can say that this is the warmest year for the last 125,000 years.”
The only other time a month surpassed the temperature record by such a significant margin was in September 2023, further highlighting the intensifying climate crisis.
Comments from the C3S echo those of the UN’s annual state of the global climate report released during COP27 last year. The report indicated that the past eight years are on pace to become the hottest on record, with experts cautioning that the 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) temperature target is now “barely within reach.”
At COP28 in Dubai, leaders must demonstrate ambition in the face of the worsening climate crisis, leveraging the first global stocktake to inform the discussion.
